Mathematics may one day calculate the number of universes in the multiverse Everything everywhere at onceHowever, she does not understand how the relationship between a mother and her daughter in one of these universes can affect the others. Math can measure frames per second in a young Steven Spielberg’s camera, but it doesn’t inspire the budding filmmaker’s center Fablemans. The math can tell exactly when the Maverick will reach Mach 10 in Top Gun: Maverickbut not when he achieves inner peace over past demons.
The same goes for the Oscars. Each year, I publish Oscar mathematical predictions, starting with the nominees’ predictions found in this article, using all of this year’s awards season data and historical trends to calculate the probability that each contender will hear their name. Sometimes my favorite model does well, like last year’s Oscars when 19 out of the 20 front-runners went on to win their races. Sometimes, there is too much disruption.
But mathematics can only tell us who is most likely to win, and not Why These movies deserve the recognition they get. This is a beautiful thing – it allows us to argue, debate and argue about who are the legitimate winners. But first, let’s use the stats to peek at these winners.
Five films that are virtual locks to hear their names invited to the first category: Everything everywhere at onceAnd Anisherin from InisherinAnd tarAnd FablemansAnd Top Gun: Maverick. These nominee predictions essentially double as early Oscar predictions, so Everything is everywhere He has the current lead, but there is time to change that.
Elvis And Avatar: Water Road It looks pretty good to round out the top seven, though it’s certainly not foolproof. From there, the image gets a lot blurrier. Mathematics sees seven main contenders for those last three spots – The woman speaksAnd BabylonAnd glass onionAnd WhaleAnd All Quiet on the Western FrontAnd Black Panther: Wakanda ForeverAnd $$$$. But some of those percentages are so low that it’s entirely possible for a movie lower than this list to sneak into the top ten.
Daniels, the common name for Everything everywhere at once Directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert could become the third joint winners in this prestigious category. Only Jerome Robbins and Robert Wise (West Side Story) and the Coen brothers (There is no country for old men) have previously collaborated to obtain this honor.
Not so fast, says Todd Field (tar), Steven Spielberg (Fablemans) and Martin McDonagh (Anisherin from Inisherin). After them, there’s a huge gap: No other competitor has a one-third chance of running, so the model is basically giving us a shrug emoji as its prediction for last place.
Best Actor is a great trio. Our Golden Globe winner Colin Farrell (Anisherin from Inisherin) and Austin Butler (Elvis), and Critics Choice Champion Brendan Fraser (Whale). All three have checked the nomination boxes of the Screen Actors Guild, BAFTAs, and plenty of critics groups along the way.
Bill Nighy (living) and Paul Mescal (after the sun) are fairly confident model choices for the last two seats at the table, but don’t rule out Jeremy Pope (inspection), Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), or Adam Sandler (Accelerates).
Katharine Hepburn. Ingrid Bergman. Walter Brennan. Daniel Day-Lewis. Frances McDormand. Jack Nicholson. Meryl Streep.
That’s it – the complete list of people who have won three Oscars. But these seven giants of their profession may be about to welcome an eighth member to their club, as Cate Blanchett is up for Best Actress for her role in tar. At the very least, she has a 99.6 percent chance of being nominated. But Michelle Yeoh is close on her heels (Everything everywhere at once), followed by Daniel Didwiller (until) and Viola Davis (The King’s Woman).
Final spot ready, with Michelle Williams (Fablemans) and Ana de Armas (blond) as the first two, according to the math.
Best Supporting Actor
Ki Hui Kwan (Everything everywhere at once) A great start to this award season. I hit my word count and would have to cut out the last three categories of this article if I listed every award he’s won so far.
But when it comes time for his Oscar campaign, he may have to get a cast to include Anisherin from Inisherin: Brendan Gleason and Barry Keoghan. Fans of this movie may risk splitting their votes, which helps the Ke Huy Quan feud.
Best Supporting Actress
In a strange bit of Oscar history, no Marvel actor has ever been nominated for an Academy Award. Well, there is a 98.4 percent chance that it is Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) That will be changed on Tuesday morning. Moreover, its film predecessor remains the only Marvel film to win an Academy Award, and Bassett would represent one of the sequel’s best chances to match that feat.
But don’t discount Kerry Condon, who is in a strong position to be one of the four actors Anisherin from Inisherin to be nominated. Also cracked the top five according to data from Hong Zhao Whale And both Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu of Everything everywhere at once.
Best original screenplay
Of the eight categories covered in this article, Everything everywhere at once He performs in half of it, including Best Original Screenplay. However, you can make a strong case for which of the first four films is in the lead here. Anisherin from Inisherin Won a Golden Globe while tar And Fablemans They got almost all the relevant nominations.
After that, it gets hard. Normally, the Writers Guild of America plays a big role in pointing the way here, but this year, they’ve changed their calendar so that their nominations aren’t released until after the Oscar nominations come out. They clearly don’t build their schedule around people trying to predict Oscar nominations with math!
Best adapted screenplay
The woman speaks And She said All but guaranteed, and living In a very good location. Whale He has a three in five chance of getting a nomination. But just like the original screenplay, it quickly becomes a better screenplay adaptation without the Writers Guild’s help.
four word titles – Pinocchio by Guillermo del ToroAnd Glass Onion: Takes the mystery out of the cutleryAnd Top Gun: MaverickAnd All Quiet on the Western Front — all within 8 percentage points of each other, and with that much uncertainty, it’s entirely possible that a script not on this list could rise to the top five in the Oscar nominations in the morning.
Ben Zosmer is the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.